Geopolitical Risks Kill the 50bp Hike Hype

If it hasn’t already happened, we’ll likely all be tired of hearing the phrase ‘geopolitical risks’ by the end of the week.  As far as non-experts can glean from alleged experts, we should learn enough about the situation in Ukraine this week to have a fairly good idea of the road ahead.  For now, unresolved risks of things like global nuclear war–small though they may be–are keeping a strong bid intact in the bond market and completely removing any doubts about a 50bp Fed rate hike in March.

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