Staying Flat Would be a Victory


Granted, the bond market lost some ground yesterday afternoon, but the more important takeaway was the day-over-day gains that  successfully confirmed Wednesday’s break below the 3.17% technical level in the 10yr.  It’s not that this is some magic line in the sand, but in this case, it showed a willingness to reject the anxiety that dominated the previous week (in which 3.17 was the lowest yield). 

With the benefit of clarity from the Fed and some additional bond-friendly data in the ensuing week, we can continue to view last week’s highs as THE highs and instead focus on identifying the lower boundary of what we still expect to be a volatile, sideways range.  Zooming in to hourly candlesticks, we see a case to add 3.13% back to the line-up of technical levels as it served as the ceiling for overnight trading today (and had been on the list in the past when it served as a floor earlier this week).

If you happen to follow along with intraday bond market movements today on MBS Live, keep in mind that

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